The Green Bay Packers are of course a member club of the National Football Conference (NFC) North division in the National Football League (the “ NFL”). This advisory explains what this “offering” is and what securities law lessons we can learn from this event. If you don’t have the guts, stop reaching for glory.The Green Bay Packers did not play in Super Bowl LVI on Sunday, but they have an “offering” that will remain active until February 25, 2022. However, in going through the data, it seems like it hasn't been the best strategy for the Packers.Įither run the ball or treat 3rd & short like 2nd & short and make a commitment to go for it on 4th if you don’t get it. That will give an opportunity for some one-on-ones to that isolated receiver, which can be tempting if you like the match-up. The Packers use a lot of Trips/Quads look, leaving one receiver isolated on the other side. If you're dialing up a pass, chances are there's at least one deep route on the play (sometimes more as a clear-out than anything else). To be clear, there's a lot that goes into the decision to throw deep in this situation. Even though they are middling at converting these, they are not aggressive on 4th down following this call. They throw the ball deep at the 4th highest rate in the league on 3rd & short, but are only middling at converting 1st downs when doing it. The Packers have been a good 3rd & short team when running the ball, but merely average when throwing the ball. So, basically the same in terms of league ranking either way. After we remove situations where they attempted a field goal after failing on 3rd & short, the Packers Aggressiveness Rate was 33.3%, which had them tied for 20th. Unfortunately, the Packers don’t fare any better in that situation. Chuck it deep and if we fail we’re still in a position to get points. I would still like to see them either try to get the 1st down or go for it on 4th down, but I can understand if they’re going for a variance play. I wanted to go one step further and remove plays where teams attempted a field goal on the play after throwing deep on 3rd & short. That puts them 21st in the league in Aggressiveness Rate over that time. Since the beginning of 2019, the Packers have gone for it on 4th down 25% of the time after failing on the deep ball on 3rd & short. I created an Aggressiveness Rate by looking at what the Packers did on the play after throwing deep on 3rd & short. What’s your plan when you don’t convert? Are you taking shots with the intention of going for it on 4th down if it doesn’t pan out? Is 3rd & short the new 2nd & short?įor the Packers in the LaFleur era? No. You want to chuck the ball on 3rd & short at the 4th highest rate in the league? Cool. Now let’s really bring this puppy home, because this is what I was very curious about. When targeting deep on 3rd & short, the Packers gained a 1st down 48% of the time, which ranked them 12th. (Just to round out that top 4, Raiders were #2 with 22.6% and Cardinals were #3 with 18.4%). The Packers were 4th, throwing deep on 17.7% of their passes on 3rd & short. The team that throws deep the most on 3rd & short is the Minnesota Vikings, with a deep throw rate of 23.5%. They throw quite a bit on 3rd & short, but they’re not #1. I’m not judging you.) We’re here to talk about how often the Packers just chucked the ball deep. When throwing the ball, they had a success rate of 56.0%, 16th in the league.īut we’re not here to look at success rate for 3rd & short, are we? (You might be. When running the ball, the Packers had a success rate of 70.1%, 10th in the league. A success rate of 61.1% ranked them 16th in the league (for reference, the Cowboys were 1st with a success rate of 67.8%). How did they do in those situations? They did fine. The central question is this: do the Packers throw deep on 3rd & short more than the rest of the league? Our sample size - as it will be for all of these posts - will be 2019-2022: the LaFleur era.įirst things first: how often did the Packers find themselves in this situation compared to the rest of the league? Since the beginning of 2019, the Packers have faced 3rd & short roughly 3.5 times per game, 23rd in the league. If the ball is incomplete, cries of "just Rodgers going hero ball again" are heard throughout the land. If the ball is complete, it is hailed as a great call. The ball is snapped and the crowd can hear Aaron Rodgers audibly screaming LEROYYYYYYYYYYYYYY JENKINSSSSSSSSSSSSS as he launches a ball up the sideline. The Packers just need a 1st down to keep the chains moving. It's 3rd & short (where "short" is defined as 1-3 yards needed to get a 1st down). It's something I'm sure you can see in your mind. In this series, I will be taking some narratives that I have seen repeated as fact and digging into the numbers and film to see if those things are actually true, or simply the result of a narrative gone wild.
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